One thing that I learned from working with beginners is that they often make the mistake to only run proven offers.
For sure it´s good to know if an offer is doing good or not.
But there is only one reason why your AM can tell you if the offer is converting or not.
Because the offer already received lots of traffic and then either generated conversions or not.
Of course it´s nice when others spent time and money to test the offer.
Then you can easily skip the step and only run proven offers.
That way you don´t waste money running losers.
The problem is the same as the advantage.
Your AM can only tell you if an offer is converting when it already received lots of traffic and generated many conversions.
Now lt´s check how offers work.
Then you also can see why it´s often better to run fresh offers and not proven offers.
The first thing is about duplicate conversions.
When an offer is fresh it starts with an empty database.
No conversions = no entries.
Let´s say I am the first one to promote this offer.
Then all conversions that I generate will be credited to me.
When someone else then starts to promote thze offer a week later and a user who already converted in my campiagn would convert again for the next affiliate he wouldn´t get credited for it.
The user is already in the database so it would be a duplicate lead.
You see, the more people converted on an offer the more entries are in the database.
That´s why fresh offers often convert better than older but proven ones.
The next reason why fresh offers often are better is that advertisers also optimize.
They basically do the same what we do.
They start a new offer with no stats about it.
Then they collect stats from the traffic, about conversions and they check what performs best.
Advertisers also optimize the offers but as you can imagine they don´t do it for your profit.
They optimize the offers for their own profit.
In the end it´s exactly the same what we do with our campaigns.
When your campaigns happen to be bery profitable for the advertiser as well you are on the lucky side.
But often it´s not the case and the optimization from advertisers side will cause a drop in your campaigns performance.
Maybe you have seen it yourself already.
You run an offer and it´s converting very good.
Then one day the offer gets paused on the CPA network so you have to stop your campaign.
A week later the offer gets resumed.
You see it and you get excited because the offer was very good so you just restart your campaign.
And then the disappointment.
The same campaign, same lander, same targeting, same offer that was doing extremely good a week ago suddenly is not working anymore.
That can happen when the advertiser pauses the offer, checks the stats and then optimizes for his profit.
So you see, here it´s also often better to run fresh offers because they often convert better.
Don´t get me wrong, it´s not that proven offers are generally bad.
I would rather use them for testing new landers or Geos.
There it´s helpful to have some proven converters to cut one variable from the tests.
But when I found a good setup I mostly try to test fresh offers to be one of the early affiliates to run it.
There are also verticals where it´s not that important to run only fresh offers but for many CPA offers it can help to run it that way.